Residents leave a town because of a lack of services, which cuts the tax base, which leads to more services lost, which leads to more residents leaving…
A hip new brand attracts a few opinion leaders, who flash the logo, which attracts more hipsters, who then establish a status standard, which attracts more customers…
The key variable in both spirals is time.
The rise or fall happens day by day, not all at once, and normal interventions rarely make a difference. Instead, it’s the apparently irrational overinvestment in the moment that can change the dynamic going forward.
https://seths.blog/2024/09/snowballs-and-avalanches/